Are the Democrats Mavericks or Spurs?

I was recently struck by a similarity between the current U.S. presidential race and the NBA. Everyone seems to be convinced that the Democrats have all the momentum and that the Republicans have pretty much tanked their chances of retaining the presidency, but I'm not so sure. This is where the similarity with the NBA comes in. The NBA is made up of two conferences, the East and the West. The West, as anyone who has listened to even the slightest amount of sports talk radio can tell you, is stacked. It has the top teams. They're the most fun to watch. They're high energy. They're innovative. They're what's right with basketball. The East, not so much. Not good. Not fun. Not high energy. Not innovative. They're, let's face it, the least. However, that doesn't mean that the West is guaranteed the title. It seems like that for the last few years many of the sports pundits have called the Western conference semi-finals the true championship series. However, the East has gone on to win the title a few of those times. Most recently two years ago when the Miami Heat upset Dallas.

I wonder if we're making the same mistake with politics. Many of the political pundits seem to believe the strength is with the Democrats; they've got the high energy, the fun, the appeal, the innovation. The road to the White House is being portrayed as being decided in the Democratic primaries. I wonder, however, if there might be too much strength in the Democratic position. In the NBA, the Western Conference teams usually beat themselves up just to make it to the finals. They're emotionally and physically beat up when they meet their Eastern Conference foe. The Eastern Conference champion however is usually fresher because of the easier path to the finale. In a similar vein, I believe that the Democratic nominee, whether Hillary or Barack, will be bruised and spent from just trying to get the nomination. Whereas John, for the Republicans, is fresh and already focused on the general election.

This of course is not a predictor of the final results. Is it better to be tested throughout the playoffs, or to have an easier first couple of rounds? In the NBA, Miami topped Dallas in 2006; but the Western Conference Spurs swept Cleveland in 2007. I guess the point I'm trying to make is that this race hasn't been decided yet, and it won't be until November. I think the lesson we can learn from the NBA is that surprises and injuries happen and that a position of strength is not a predictor of victory. The Democrats should take a lesson from the Spurs. Don't be overconfident, play your game, stick to fundamentals. They probably should "sweep" the general election, but let's not count our hanging chads until Florida is disqualified from the Union.